Wanting a candidate to win...

... doesn't mean he/she will.

Living in Utah, I sometimes have political conversations with people. A typical trajectory for these conversations involves me advocating anything left of far-right extremism, while whoever I'm talking to uses a bristling arsenal of logical fallacies to refute my points.

But sometimes in these conversations I encounter the view that something is going to happen, but for no apparent reason. In other words, people want it to happen, therefore it will (they think).

A good example of this — and something I've seen countless times lately — is the notion that Mitt Romney is going to be the next president. Romney, though perhaps the current Republican front runner, is not doing great now and I think he'll only do worse and worse as the election season gears up. Here is why:

1. He's Mormon. Though Romney is sometimes compared to JFK, Mormons don't enjoy anything close to the status that Catholics did in the mid twentieth century. I simply don't think Romney will survive a Republican primary, where his religion will be viewed with great skepticism. I think Mormons sometimes don't realize that just because people have a generally favorable impression of the religion they won't automatically be willing to put up with a Mormon leader. And, despite the impression within Mormonism that the church is widely recognized and respected, a lot of people know nothing about the church, while others hold negative or wildly distorted views of it.

2. Slipperiness. Even if Romney did overcome the religion issue, no one really knows where Romney stands on anything, and the general sense is that he's willing to say and do whatever it takes to win. In other words, he's viewed by many as someone without integrity.

3. His record. Romney is ultimately a moderate. The Onion recently posted a funny article about this. But the problem is that it's absolutely true. Romney did some impressive things in Mass., but now he has to try to "overcome" most of the political accomplishments he's had.

These are basic facts that anyone who spends ten minutes a day reading political news would know.

But strangely, I keep running into people who either A) aren't aware that these perceptions exist, or B) don't think they'll matter.

If someone thinks that these points are wrong, or if they think they have counterpoints that they think addresses them, well then fair enough. But I've been surprised a lot of people I meet don't fall into either of those categories. They want Romney to win, so they think he will. When I ask them why, they usually just give some vague answer. (I wish someone would just be honest with me and say "he's Mormon, and he looks like a president.") And even when they have good reasons, they have no good response to the fact that Romney has perhaps more obstacles going into a Republican primary than any other major candidate.

I can testify to the fact that wanting a candidate to win doesn't ensure anything (Obama's victory was the first time in my life that my candidate won).

But more interestingly, I think that this attitude actually is self-defeating. I don't think that Romney has a chance. But I think that in four or eight years, Huntsman might. He's a moderate and a Mormon, but he doesn't yet have a reputation for flip-flopping and political two-facedness. If moderate Republicans, Mormons and others wanted to elect a candidate like Romney, they would do well to abandon him and begin supporting Huntsman. In 2012 he can raise his profile, and by 2016 he'll be a strong candidate.

In the end, I don't really care if my friends, family and neighbors support Romney. I'll be voting against whoever gets the Republican nomination anyway.

But think the situation is illustrative of the fact that wishful thinking alone is not enough.